Pittsburgh Penguins at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Kevin HayesGoals1
- Kevin HayesAssists1
- Kevin HayesPoints2
Kings- Jordan SpenceAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:57Anthony Beauvillier Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Kris Letang (11), Sidney Crosby (38)5–1
- P219:00Cody Glass Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Hayes (4), Owen Pickering (2)4–1
- P216:02Adrian Kempe Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (31), Jordan Spence (12)3–1
- P28:26Evgeni Malkin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (6), Marcus Pettersson (15)3–0
- P114:09Sidney Crosby Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (24), Anthony Beauvillier (4)2–0
- P110:09Kevin Hayes Goal (8) , assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:09Kevin Hayes Goal (8) , assists: nonePIT 1 – 0 LA · PIT 38% → 53% +16PIT 38% → 53%+16 pts
- P114:09Sidney Crosby Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (24), Anthony Beauvillier (4)PIT 2 – 0 LA · PIT 54% → 70% +16PIT 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P28:26Evgeni Malkin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (6), Marcus Pettersson (15)PIT 3 – 0 LA · PIT 77% → 90% +12PIT 77% → 90%+12 pts
- P216:02Adrian Kempe Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (31), Jordan Spence (12)PIT 3 – 1 LA · LA 7% → 18% +11LA 7% → 18%+11 pts
- P219:00Cody Glass Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Hayes (4), Owen Pickering (2)PIT 4 – 1 LA · PIT 85% → 95% +10PIT 85% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 64%
- ML PIT +165 / LA -195
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- LA: Elo 65.3%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- LA -175
- PIT +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +11 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +110 Elo | LA 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.6% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.7%9th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 28th of 327–16 | Road vs home | 14–31st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–25 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 28–20 | 16–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–1 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.