Los Angeles Kings at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Alex TurcotteGoals2
- Alex TurcotteAssists1
- Alex TurcottePoints3
Canucks- Quinn HughesGoals1
- Conor GarlandAssists1
- Quinn HughesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:36Warren Foegele Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Quinton Byfield (12), Brandt Clarke (20)5–1
- P215:58Kevin Fiala Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (13), Joel Edmundson (7)4–1
- P214:52Quinn Hughes Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (20), Filip Hronek (9)3–1
- P19:42Adrian Kempe Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (12), Anze Kopitar (29)3–0
- P19:18Alex Turcotte Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (9), Mikey Anderson (9)2–0
- P10:51Alex Turcotte Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:51Alex Turcotte Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Adrian Kempe (20)LA 1 – 0 VAN · LA 52% → 66% +14LA 52% → 66%+14 pts
- P19:18Alex Turcotte Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (9), Mikey Anderson (9)LA 2 – 0 VAN · LA 67% → 80% +13LA 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P19:42Adrian Kempe Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Turcotte (12), Anze Kopitar (29)LA 3 – 0 VAN · LA 80% → 89% +9LA 80% → 89%+9 pts
- P214:52Quinn Hughes Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (20), Filip Hronek (9)LA 3 – 1 VAN · VAN 4% → 12% +8VAN 4% → 12%+8 pts
- P215:58Kevin Fiala Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (13), Joel Edmundson (7)LA 4 – 1 VAN · LA 88% → 96% +8LA 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 52%
- ML LA -120 / VAN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- LA: Elo 49.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -109
- VAN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.8 – 2.7 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +5 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +7 Elo | VAN 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 47.9%26th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.1%29th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 19th of 3210–14 | Road vs home | 7–1431st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–20 | 18–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 14–27 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–2 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.