Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals1
- Nic DowdAssists2
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:30Brandon Duhaime Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (15), Nic Dowd (8)1–4
- P317:50Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (17)1–3
- P311:29Bryan Rust Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (37), Rickard Rakell (17)1–2
- P212:08Aliaksei Protas Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (28), Connor McMichael (16)0–2
- P17:42Jakob Chychrun Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (19), Nic Dowd (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:42Jakob Chychrun Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (19), Nic Dowd (7)PIT 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 63% → 76% +14WSH 63% → 76%+14 pts
- P212:08Aliaksei Protas Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (28), Connor McMichael (16)PIT 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 78% → 90% +12WSH 78% → 90%+12 pts
- P311:29Bryan Rust Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (37), Rickard Rakell (17)PIT 1 – 2 WSH · PIT 2% → 14% +12PIT 2% → 14%+12 pts
- P317:50Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (17)PIT 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 98% → >99% +2WSH 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P318:30Brandon Duhaime Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (15), Nic Dowd (8)PIT 1 – 4 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 64%
- ML PIT +165 / WSH -195
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.6 pts
- WSH: Elo 72.2%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- WSH -175
- PIT +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.4 – 3.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +12 | PIT: Joel Blomqvist: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +166 Elo | WSH 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 70.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 49.7%17th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 91.4%2nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 28th of 327–15 | Road vs home | 15–89th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–24 | 28–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 19–17 | 17–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–19 | 21–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.