Anaheim Ducks at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks
Capitals- Brandon DuhaimeGoals1
- Brandon DuhaimeAssists1
- Brandon DuhaimePoints2
Scoring summary
- P219:01Ethen Frank Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (27), Brandon Duhaime (7)0–3
- P114:30John Carlson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none0–2
- P17:34Brandon Duhaime Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jakob Chychrun (18), Nic Dowd (6)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:34Brandon Duhaime Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Jakob Chychrun (18), Nic Dowd (6)ANA 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 69% → 81% +12WSH 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P114:30John Carlson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneANA 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 81% → 90% +9WSH 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P219:01Ethen Frank Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (27), Brandon Duhaime (7)ANA 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 94% → 98% +5WSH 94% → 98%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 70%
- ML ANA +220 / WSH -270
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 71.4%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -234
- ANA +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +9 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +159 Elo | WSH 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 71.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.0%6th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 18th of 329–12 | Road vs home | 14–89th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–14 | 26–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 26–13 | 16–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–29 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 0–2 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.