Anaheim Ducks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks
Flyers- Garnet HathawayGoals1
- Garnet HathawayAssists1
- Garnet HathawayPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:55Garnet Hathaway Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ryan Poehling (11), Scott Laughton (14)0–6
- P37:36Matvei Michkov Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (30), Jamie Drysdale (7)0–5
- P30:24Ryan Poehling Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (10), Travis Sanheim (16)0–4
- P216:12Owen Tippett Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (29)0–3
- P118:11Jamie Drysdale Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (28), Morgan Frost (12)0–2
- P16:48Morgan Frost Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (27), Owen Tippett (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:48Morgan Frost Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (27), Owen Tippett (14)ANA 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 62% → 76% +14PHI 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P118:11Jamie Drysdale Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (28), Morgan Frost (12)ANA 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 76% → 88% +11PHI 76% → 88%+11 pts
- P216:12Owen Tippett Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (29)ANA 0 – 3 PHI · PHI 91% → 97% +6PHI 91% → 97%+6 pts
- P30:24Ryan Poehling Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (10), Travis Sanheim (16)ANA 0 – 4 PHI · PHI 98% → >99% +1PHI 98% → >99%+1 pts
- P37:36Matvei Michkov Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (30), Jamie Drysdale (7)ANA 0 – 5 PHI · PHI >99% → >99% +0PHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML ANA +160 / PHI -190
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -170
- ANA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.4 – 3.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +5 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +69 Elo | PHI 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.628th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 50.8%10th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 87.7%32nd of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 22nd of 328–11 | Road vs home | 8–1227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–13 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 25–12 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 13–28 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–2 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.