Anaheim Ducks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Cutter GauthierGoals2
- Jackson LaCombeAssists2
- Cutter GauthierPoints2
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals1
- Brent BurnsAssists1
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:52Cutter Gauthier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (12), Frank Vatrano (13)3–2
- P319:04Seth Jarvis Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (35), Brent Burns (12)2–2
- P37:48Andrei Svechnikov Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (31), Martin Necas (34)2–1
- P31:18Cutter Gauthier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (12), Jackson LaCombe (11)2–0
- P19:35Jansen Harkins Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (1), Brian Dumoulin (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:35Jansen Harkins Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (1), Brian Dumoulin (9)ANA 1 – 0 CAR · ANA 23% → 36% +14ANA 23% → 36%+14 pts
- P31:18Cutter Gauthier Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (12), Jackson LaCombe (11)ANA 2 – 0 CAR · ANA 58% → 80% +22ANA 58% → 80%+22 pts
- P37:48Andrei Svechnikov Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (31), Martin Necas (34)ANA 2 – 1 CAR · CAR 11% → 33% +22CAR 11% → 33%+22 pts
- P319:04Seth Jarvis Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (35), Brent Burns (12)ANA 2 – 2 CAR · CAR <1% → 54% +54CAR <1% → 54%+54 pts
- OT1:52Cutter Gauthier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (12), Frank Vatrano (13)ANA 3 – 2 CAR · ANA 43% → 92% +49ANA 43% → 92%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 79%
- ML ANA +360 / CAR -500
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 75.0%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -383
- ANA +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.3 – 4.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +4 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +191 Elo | CAR 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 81.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 79.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.67th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.7% | Shot share | 55.7%1st of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 24th of 328–12 | Road vs home | 17–52nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–14 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 20–19 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–28 | 18–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–1 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.