Washington Capitals at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors OTT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Rasmus SandinAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
SenatorsScoring summary
- OT3:07Alex Ovechkin Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (14)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- OT3:07Alex Ovechkin Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (14)WSH 1 – 0 OTT · WSH 50% → 98% +48WSH 50% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 51%
- ML WSH -105 / OTT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- OTT: Elo 50.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.7 – 2.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +20 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.49 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +1 Elo | OTT 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 52.0%9th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3214–7 | Road vs home | 11–813th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–17 | 18–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–12 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 16–5 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–23 | 16–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.