Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Artem ZubGoals1
- Drake BathersonAssists1
- Adam GaudettePoints1
IslandersScoring summary
- P318:36Artem Zub Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (10), Drake Batherson (25)2–0
- P28:42Adam Gaudette Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Kleven (2), Shane Pinto (6)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:42Adam Gaudette Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Kleven (2), Shane Pinto (6)OTT 1 – 0 NYI · OTT 49% → 69% +19OTT 49% → 69%+19 pts
- P318:36Artem Zub Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (10), Drake Batherson (25)OTT 2 – 0 NYI · OTT >99% → >99% +1OTT >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 51%
- ML OTT -105 / NYI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- NYI: Elo 52.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -104
- OTT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.7 – 2.8 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +15 | OTT: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYI: Marcus Hogberg: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +15 Elo | NYI 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 9th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 50.2%12th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 17th of 3210–13 | Road vs home | 7–1128th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–25 | 18–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 3–18 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–26 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 1–4 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.