Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Matt GrzelcykAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints2
Sabres- Zach BensonGoals1
- Zach BensonAssists1
- Zach BensonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:18Alex Nedeljkovic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P314:46Zach Benson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (17), Alex Tuch (19)4–2
- P31:09Bryan Rust Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (23), Michael Bunting (13)4–1
- P211:43Cody Glass Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (5), Alex Nedeljkovic (1)3–1
- P22:08Anthony Beauvillier Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Cody Glass (9)2–1
- P21:41Rickard Rakell Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (18), Matt Grzelcyk (22)1–1
- P115:16Owen Power Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (8), Bowen Byram (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:16Owen Power Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (8), Bowen Byram (18)PIT 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 52% → 68% +16BUF 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P21:41Rickard Rakell Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (18), Matt Grzelcyk (22)PIT 1 – 1 BUF · PIT 31% → 48% +17PIT 31% → 48%+17 pts
- P22:08Anthony Beauvillier Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Cody Glass (9)PIT 2 – 1 BUF · PIT 48% → 66% +18PIT 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P211:43Cody Glass Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Tomasino (5), Alex Nedeljkovic (1)PIT 3 – 1 BUF · PIT 69% → 85% +16PIT 69% → 85%+16 pts
- P31:09Bryan Rust Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (23), Michael Bunting (13)PIT 4 – 1 BUF · PIT 90% → 97% +7PIT 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 52%
- ML PIT +100 / BUF -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 57.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +50 Elo | BUF 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 47.9%27th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 89.5%27th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 28th of 326–15 | Road vs home | 9–1325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–24 | 22–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 18–17 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–19 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–2 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.