Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Brent BurnsAssists2
- Brent BurnsPoints2
Sabres- Ryan McLeodGoals3
- Jason ZuckerAssists2
- Ryan McLeodPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:36Ryan McLeod Goal (10) , assists: Tage Thompson (16), Jason Zucker (18)2–4
- P316:50Martin Necas Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (22), Brent Burns (14)2–3
- P33:45Jaccob Slavin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (13), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (13)1–3
- P219:56Ryan McLeod Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (17)0–3
- P28:18Dylan Cozens Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (18)0–2
- P10:43Ryan McLeod Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (8), Beck Malenstyn (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:43Ryan McLeod Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (8), Beck Malenstyn (5)CAR 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 38% → 52% +14BUF 38% → 52%+14 pts
- P28:18Dylan Cozens Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (18)CAR 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 61% → 78% +17BUF 61% → 78%+17 pts
- P219:56Ryan McLeod Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (17)CAR 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 86% → 96% +10BUF 86% → 96%+10 pts
- P33:45Jaccob Slavin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (13), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (13)CAR 1 – 3 BUF · CAR 3% → 11% +8CAR 3% → 11%+8 pts
- P316:50Martin Necas Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (22), Brent Burns (14)CAR 2 – 3 BUF · CAR <1% → 6% +6CAR <1% → 6%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 62%
- ML CAR -185 / BUF +155
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 56.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -166
- BUF +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.1 – 2.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | 0 | CAR: Dustin Tokarski: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +47 Elo | CAR 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3255.9% | Shot share | 48.1%26th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.3%27th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 20th of 329–12 | Road vs home | 8–1328th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–22 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–20 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 18–26 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 2–1 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.