Los Angeles Kings at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Jordan SpenceGoals1
- Trevor MooreAssists1
- Jordan SpencePoints1
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals3
- Matty BeniersAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:50Jaden Schwartz Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (19)2–4
- P21:37Chandler Stephenson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (17), Andre Burakovsky (13)2–3
- P118:43Jordan Spence Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (19), Trevor Moore (14)2–2
- P17:40Jaden Schwartz Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (16), Kaapo Kakko (18)1–2
- P16:07Adrian Kempe Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (30), Kevin Fiala (10)1–1
- P10:28Jaden Schwartz Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:28Jaden Schwartz Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (17)LA 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 42% → 56% +15SEA 42% → 56%+15 pts
- P16:07Adrian Kempe Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (30), Kevin Fiala (10)LA 1 – 1 SEA · LA 43% → 58% +15LA 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P17:40Jaden Schwartz Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (16), Kaapo Kakko (18)LA 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 42% → 58% +15SEA 42% → 58%+15 pts
- P118:43Jordan Spence Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (19), Trevor Moore (14)LA 2 – 2 SEA · LA 40% → 57% +17LA 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P21:37Chandler Stephenson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (17), Andre Burakovsky (13)LA 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 43% → 61% +18SEA 43% → 61%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 58%
- ML LA -155 / SEA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- LA: Elo 54.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -140
- SEA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 2.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +14 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +31 Elo | LA 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 48.2%25th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 18th of 3211–14 | Road vs home | 9–1326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–20 | 24–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 15–27 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–1 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.