Washington Capitals at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Trevor van RiemsdykAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
KrakenScoring summary
- P316:32Alex Ovechkin Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (14), Jakob Chychrun (19)3–0
- P218:05Ethen Frank Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P24:36Aliaksei Protas Goal (20) , assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:36Aliaksei Protas Goal (20) , assists: noneWSH 1 – 0 SEA · WSH 54% → 72% +18WSH 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P218:05Ethen Frank Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWSH 2 – 0 SEA · WSH 75% → 90% +15WSH 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P316:32Alex Ovechkin Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor van Riemsdyk (14), Jakob Chychrun (19)WSH 3 – 0 SEA · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML WSH -135 / SEA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 2.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | +10 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +23 Elo | WSH 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 48.2%26th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 89.7%23rd of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3216–7 | Road vs home | 11–1325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–17 | 26–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 21–26 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.