Buffalo Sabres at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Peyton KrebsAssists2
- Jason ZuckerPoints2
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists2
- Jared McCannPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:56Jared McCann Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (7), Adam Larsson (9)4–6
- P318:39Alex Tuch Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (19), Dylan Cozens (13)4–5
- P310:25Adam Larsson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (22), Eeli Tolvanen (8)3–5
- P216:34Jamie Oleksiak Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (14), Jared McCann (21)3–4
- P215:38Tage Thompson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (4), Peyton Krebs (12)3–3
- P29:31Jason Zucker Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (26), Tage Thompson (18)2–3
- P26:41Matty Beniers Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (25), Vince Dunn (12)1–3
- P111:06Chandler Stephenson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (18), Ryker Evans (16)1–2
- P15:34John Hayden Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Stephens (2), Ryker Evans (15)1–1
- P15:07Jack Quinn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (18), Peyton Krebs (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:07Jack Quinn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (18), Peyton Krebs (11)BUF 1 – 0 SEA · BUF 47% → 62% +15BUF 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P15:34John Hayden Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Stephens (2), Ryker Evans (15)BUF 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 38% → 53% +15SEA 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P111:06Chandler Stephenson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (18), Ryker Evans (16)BUF 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 53% → 68% +15SEA 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P215:38Tage Thompson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (4), Peyton Krebs (12)BUF 3 – 3 SEA · BUF 27% → 48% +21BUF 27% → 48%+21 pts
- P216:34Jamie Oleksiak Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (14), Jared McCann (21)BUF 3 – 4 SEA · SEA 52% → 74% +22SEA 52% → 74%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 53%
- ML BUF +105 / SEA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -114
- BUF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.7 – 2.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | +13 | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +60 Elo | SEA 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 48.0%26th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 24th of 328–12 | Road vs home | 10–1325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–23 | 25–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–2 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.