Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals2
- Jacob TroubaAssists2
- Alex KillornPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:00Alex Killorn Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (11), Isac Lundestrom (4)1–5
- P36:52Frank Vatrano Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (20), Troy Terry (22)1–4
- P32:06Mason McTavish Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (11), Troy Terry (21)1–3
- P25:32Michael Bunting Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (19), Rickard Rakell (18)1–2
- P119:01Alex Killorn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Helleson (4), Trevor Zegras (7)0–2
- P19:28Mason McTavish Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (5), Jacob Trouba (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:28Mason McTavish Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (5), Jacob Trouba (10)PIT 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 43% → 58% +16ANA 43% → 58%+16 pts
- P119:01Alex Killorn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Helleson (4), Trevor Zegras (7)PIT 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 61% → 76% +15ANA 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P25:32Michael Bunting Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (19), Rickard Rakell (18)PIT 1 – 2 ANA · PIT 21% → 37% +16PIT 21% → 37%+16 pts
- P32:06Mason McTavish Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (11), Troy Terry (21)PIT 1 – 3 ANA · ANA 71% → 89% +18ANA 71% → 89%+18 pts
- P36:52Frank Vatrano Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (20), Troy Terry (22)PIT 1 – 4 ANA · ANA 93% → 99% +6ANA 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 58%
- ML PIT -150 / ANA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -138
- ANA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −7 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +28 Elo | PIT 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.432nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.8% | Shot share | 46.5%30th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%11th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 28th of 328–16 | Road vs home | 9–1428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–25 | 30–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders | 29–20 | 16–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–1 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.