Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Robby FabbriGoals1
- Jacob TroubaAssists1
- Robby FabbriPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jake Guentzel Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P39:53Robby Fabbri Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (9), Pavel Mintyukov (7)3–3
- P215:26Brayden Point Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (45), Nick Perbix (7)2–3
- P211:26Leo Carlsson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (13)2–2
- P22:51Jake Guentzel Goal (22) Poke, assists: Nikita Kucherov (44), Darren Raddysh (15)1–2
- P114:19Anthony Cirelli Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (29), Victor Hedman (28)1–1
- P16:03Troy Terry Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Strome (18), Brian Dumoulin (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:19Anthony Cirelli Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (29), Victor Hedman (28)ANA 1 – 1 TB · TB 56% → 71% +16TB 56% → 71%+16 pts
- P22:51Jake Guentzel Goal (22) Poke, assists: Nikita Kucherov (44), Darren Raddysh (15)ANA 1 – 2 TB · TB 69% → 83% +14TB 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P211:26Leo Carlsson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (13)ANA 2 – 2 TB · ANA 16% → 33% +16ANA 16% → 33%+16 pts
- P215:26Brayden Point Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (45), Nick Perbix (7)ANA 2 – 3 TB · TB 66% → 84% +18TB 66% → 84%+18 pts
- P39:53Robby Fabbri Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (9), Pavel Mintyukov (7)ANA 3 – 3 TB · ANA 12% → 40% +27ANA 12% → 40%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TB 74%
- ML ANA +270 / TB -340
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- TB: Elo 69.1%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -286
- ANA +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.5 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +6 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +140 Elo | TB 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 75.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 74.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 50.1%14th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 22nd of 329–13 | Road vs home | 13–710th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–15 | 23–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 26–14 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–30 | 18–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.