Anaheim Ducks at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks
Panthers- Jesper BoqvistGoals1
- Tomas NosekAssists1
- Jesper BoqvistPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:53Gustav Forsling Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Spencer Knight (2)0–3
- P34:43Anton Lundell Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P211:22Jesper Boqvist Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (5), Dmitry Kulikov (7)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:22Jesper Boqvist Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (5), Dmitry Kulikov (7)ANA 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 70% → 85% +15FLA 70% → 85%+15 pts
- P34:43Anton Lundell Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 86% → 97% +10FLA 86% → 97%+10 pts
- P319:53Gustav Forsling Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Spencer Knight (2)ANA 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 100% → 100% +0FLA 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 77%
- ML ANA +320 / FLA -425
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- FLA: Elo 70.7%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -340
- ANA +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 1.9 – 3.6 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −5 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +153 Elo | FLA 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 75.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 74.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +0.213th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 53.2%5th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%24th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 25th of 329–14 | Road vs home | 11–1117th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–15 | 21–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 14–23 |
| Underdog | 27–14 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 15–30 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–1 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.