Florida Panthers at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Uvis BalinskisGoals1
- Nate SchmidtAssists1
- Uvis BalinskisPoints1
Flyers- Noah CatesGoals2
- Rasmus RistolainenAssists1
- Noah CatesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:09Noah Cates Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Tyson Foerster (8), Egor Zamula (8)3–4
- P35:59Morgan Frost Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (18), Jamie Drysdale (8)3–3
- P33:35Sam Reinhart Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (26), Aleksander Barkov (27)3–2
- P32:01Noah Cates Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (17), Rasmus Ristolainen (11)2–2
- P27:51Garnet Hathaway Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P19:34Uvis Balinskis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (11), Nate Schmidt (6)2–0
- P17:59Sam Reinhart Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:59Sam Reinhart Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 1 – 0 PHI · FLA 62% → 75% +14FLA 62% → 75%+14 pts
- P32:01Noah Cates Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (17), Rasmus Ristolainen (11)FLA 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 20% → 43% +23PHI 20% → 43%+23 pts
- P33:35Sam Reinhart Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (26), Aleksander Barkov (27)FLA 3 – 2 PHI · FLA 57% → 81% +24FLA 57% → 81%+24 pts
- P35:59Morgan Frost Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (18), Jamie Drysdale (8)FLA 3 – 3 PHI · PHI 18% → 44% +26PHI 18% → 44%+26 pts
- P314:09Noah Cates Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Tyson Foerster (8), Egor Zamula (8)FLA 3 – 4 PHI · PHI 46% → 86% +40PHI 46% → 86%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 62%
- ML FLA -185 / PHI +155
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- FLA: Elo 57.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -166
- PHI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.1 – 2.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +8 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +52 Elo | FLA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.0% | Shot share | 51.0%10th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 87.9%32nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3212–8 | Road vs home | 9–1223rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–23 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–21 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.