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Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

Final/OTABC, ESPN+

Away

Bruins

21-19-5

4–3

at

Home

Panthers

25-15-3

BOS 36%FLA 64%

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Amerant Bank Arena · ABC, ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored BOS favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTFLA50%BOS

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Bruins
Panthers

Scoring summary

  • OT4:58David Pastrnak Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (17), Elias Lindholm (14)4–3
  • P319:57Sam Reinhart Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (15), Matthew Tkachuk (25)3–3
  • P32:06Oliver Wahlstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (15), Justin Brazeau (9)3–2
  • P30:43Sam Reinhart Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Aleksander Barkov (26), Gustav Forsling (11)2–2
  • P216:11David Pastrnak Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Geekie (10), Trent Frederic (7)2–1
  • P115:29Evan Rodrigues Goal (8) Batted, assists: Uvis Balinskis (10), Anton Lundell (19)1–1
  • P16:02Morgan Geekie Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Mason Lohrei (16), David Pastrnak (26)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P216:11David Pastrnak Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Geekie (10), Trent Frederic (7)BOS 2 – 1 FLA · BOS 41% → 64% +23
  2. P30:43Sam Reinhart Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Aleksander Barkov (26), Gustav Forsling (11)BOS 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 33% → 58% +25
  3. P32:06Oliver Wahlstrom Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (15), Justin Brazeau (9)BOS 3 – 2 FLA · BOS 42% → 68% +26
  4. P319:57Sam Reinhart Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (15), Matthew Tkachuk (25)BOS 3 – 3 FLA · FLA 0% → 50% +50
  5. OT4:58David Pastrnak Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (17), Elias Lindholm (14)BOS 4 – 3 FLA · BOS 50% → 100% +50

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 64%

SolidMiss
BOS 36%FLA 64%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
FLA 64%
ML BOS +170 / FLA -200
Pre-line forecast
FLA 65%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 64%
Ratings vs. market
−0.3 pts
FLA: Elo 63.9%, market 64.3%
Fair odds
FLA -180
BOS +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 2.3 – 3.2 FLA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSFLAWhy
Team rating14951554Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies0+6BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +100 EloFLA 63.9%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 65.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 65.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 64.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatFLA
31st of 322.5Goals scored3.38th of 32
21st of 323.2Goals allowed3.015th of 32
29th of 32−0.6Margin+0.311th of 32
12th of 3250.5%Shot share52.6%7th of 32
27th of 3289.3%Save percentage89.9%17th of 32
26th of 323–7Last 106–48th of 32
26th of 328–14Road vs home11–914th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BruinsPanthers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonBOSFLA
Puck line15–2920–22
Last 105–54–6
Favorite8–1914–20
Underdog7–106–2
Overs–unders20–2421–21
Overs–unders, last 103–72–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

BOS 6–6 FLA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.