Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Marco KasperGoals1
- Marco KasperAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints2
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals1
- Mackie SamoskevichAssists1
- Evan RodriguesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:38Dylan Larkin Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Kasper (8), Lucas Raymond (31)5–2
- P215:41Marco Kasper Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (21)4–2
- P213:44Patrick Kane Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (30), Moritz Seider (23)3–2
- P28:21Evan Rodrigues Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (6)2–2
- P27:52Dylan Larkin Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (18), Alex DeBrincat (18)2–1
- P111:01Anton Lundell Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (22), Dmitry Kulikov (6)1–1
- P18:48Jonatan Berggren Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (11), Vladimir Tarasenko (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:01Anton Lundell Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (22), Dmitry Kulikov (6)DET 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 52% → 68% +15FLA 52% → 68%+15 pts
- P27:52Dylan Larkin Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (18), Alex DeBrincat (18)DET 2 – 1 FLA · DET 35% → 55% +20DET 35% → 55%+20 pts
- P28:21Evan Rodrigues Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (6)DET 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 45% → 64% +20FLA 45% → 64%+20 pts
- P213:44Patrick Kane Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (30), Moritz Seider (23)DET 3 – 2 FLA · DET 37% → 59% +22DET 37% → 59%+22 pts
- P215:41Marco Kasper Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (21)DET 4 – 2 FLA · DET 60% → 79% +20DET 60% → 79%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 69%
- ML DET +215 / FLA -260
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 63.8%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- FLA -228
- DET +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.2 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +4 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +98 Elo | FLA 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 70.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.3% | Shot share | 52.8%6th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.8%20th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 18th of 328–10 | Road vs home | 11–1016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–17 | 21–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 14–22 |
| Underdog | 22–9 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 23–20 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–3 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.