San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- William EklundAssists2
- Tyler ToffoliPoints3
Red Wings- Vladimir TarasenkoGoals2
- Jonatan BerggrenAssists1
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:22Mario Ferraro Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
- P310:57Tyler Toffoli Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (24)5–3
- P39:56Lucas Raymond Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (20)4–3
- P37:43Mikael Granlund Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (18), Tyler Toffoli (13)4–2
- P36:05Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (10), Michael Rasmussen (7)3–2
- P30:26William Eklund Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (17), Tyler Toffoli (12)3–1
- P21:28Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (13), Jonatan Berggren (5)2–1
- P117:41Nico Sturm Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (23), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (2)2–0
- P11:45Jan Rutta Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (9), Alexander Wennberg (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P30:26William Eklund Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (17), Tyler Toffoli (12)SJ 3 – 1 DET · SJ 68% → 86% +19SJ 68% → 86%+19 pts
- P36:05Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (10), Michael Rasmussen (7)SJ 3 – 2 DET · DET 9% → 27% +19DET 9% → 27%+19 pts
- P37:43Mikael Granlund Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (18), Tyler Toffoli (13)SJ 4 – 2 DET · SJ 75% → 93% +18SJ 75% → 93%+18 pts
- P39:56Lucas Raymond Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (20)SJ 4 – 3 DET · DET 5% → 22% +17DET 5% → 22%+17 pts
- P310:57Tyler Toffoli Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (24)SJ 5 – 3 DET · SJ 79% → 96% +17SJ 79% → 96%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML SJ +155 / DET -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- DET: Elo 67.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -166
- SJ +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.4 – 3.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −19 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +129 Elo | DET 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 65.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.7% | Shot share | 46.2%30th of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.8%20th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 30th of 325–17 | Road vs home | 12–1219th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–17 | 26–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 28–17 | 22–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–26 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 2–1 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.