Florida Panthers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Jesper BoqvistGoals1
- Nate SchmidtAssists1
- Jesper BoqvistPoints1
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Timo MeierAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Anton Lundell Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Aleksander Barkov Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Paul Cotter Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P32:27Nico Hischier Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (16), Nathan Bastian (4)1–1
- P30:41Jesper Boqvist Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (21), Nate Schmidt (7)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P30:41Jesper Boqvist Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (21), Nate Schmidt (7)FLA 1 – 0 NJ · FLA 45% → 70% +25FLA 45% → 70%+25 pts
- P32:27Nico Hischier Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (16), Nathan Bastian (4)FLA 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 29% → 55% +26NJ 29% → 55%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 59%
- ML FLA +135 / NJ -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 57.8%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- NJ -143
- FLA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.5 – 3.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +11 | FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +55 Elo | NJ 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.54th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 53.9%3rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.7%8th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 8th of 3212–9 | Road vs home | 12–913th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–24 | 20–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–22 | 17–23 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 23–21 | 14–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 2–3 NJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.