Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Tomas NosekAssists2
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals1
- Radko GudasAssists1
- Frank VatranoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:17Uvis Balinskis Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Nosek (7), Carter Verhaeghe (23)5–2
- P30:19Sam Bennett Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (8), Niko Mikkola (11)4–2
- P119:12Mason McTavish Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (10)3–2
- P118:49Carter Verhaeghe Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (7)3–1
- P117:57Evan Rodrigues Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (6), Tomas Nosek (6)2–1
- P18:58Sam Reinhart Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (27), Aleksander Barkov (28)1–1
- P14:57Frank Vatrano Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (20), Ryan Strome (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:57Frank Vatrano Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (20), Ryan Strome (19)FLA 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 31% → 46% +14ANA 31% → 46%+14 pts
- P18:58Sam Reinhart Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (27), Aleksander Barkov (28)FLA 1 – 1 ANA · FLA 53% → 68% +15FLA 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P117:57Evan Rodrigues Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (6), Tomas Nosek (6)FLA 2 – 1 ANA · FLA 67% → 81% +14FLA 67% → 81%+14 pts
- P119:12Mason McTavish Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (10)FLA 3 – 2 ANA · ANA 10% → 19% +10ANA 10% → 19%+10 pts
- P30:19Sam Bennett Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (8), Niko Mikkola (11)FLA 4 – 2 ANA · FLA 82% → 94% +12FLA 82% → 94%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 69%
- ML FLA -260 / ANA +215
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- FLA: Elo 61.5%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- FLA -227
- ANA +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.3 – 2.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +7 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +81 Elo | FLA 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 67.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.432nd of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 46.4%30th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 5th of 3213–9 | Road vs home | 9–1327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–25 | 30–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–23 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 27–15 |
| Overs–unders | 24–23 | 15–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 2–1 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.