Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Andrew CoppGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists1
- Andrew CoppPoints1
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:06Andrew Copp Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (19), Vladimir Tarasenko (15)3–1
- P38:34Nazem Kadri Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (20), Matt Coronato (15)2–1
- P119:14Simon Edvinsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (7), Elmer Soderblom (2)2–0
- P18:27Dylan Larkin Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (6), Dominik Shine (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:27Dylan Larkin Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (6), Dominik Shine (1)DET 1 – 0 CGY · DET 49% → 64% +15DET 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P119:14Simon Edvinsson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (7), Elmer Soderblom (2)DET 2 – 0 CGY · DET 66% → 81% +14DET 66% → 81%+14 pts
- P38:34Nazem Kadri Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (20), Matt Coronato (15)DET 2 – 1 CGY · CGY 5% → 20% +16CGY 5% → 20%+16 pts
- P319:06Andrew Copp Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (19), Vladimir Tarasenko (15)DET 3 – 1 CGY · DET >99% → >99% +0DET >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 51%
- ML DET -105 / CGY -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- CGY: Elo 53.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CGY -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.7 – 2.8 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +10 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +22 Elo | CGY 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.915th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 19th of 3210–13 | Road vs home | 16–1012th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–19 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 27–11 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 25–26 | 20–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–0 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.