Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals1
- Trevor van RiemsdykAssists1
- Dylan StromePoints1
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Tyson BarrieAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:35Aliaksei Protas Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (9), Trevor van Riemsdyk (15)3–1
- P215:12Dylan Strome Goal (13) Backhand, assists: John Carlson (26), Jakob Chychrun (20)2–1
- P212:17Blake Coleman Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Tyson Barrie (2), Andrei Kuzmenko (11)1–1
- P11:51Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:51Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWSH 1 – 0 CGY · WSH 57% → 71% +14WSH 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P212:17Blake Coleman Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Tyson Barrie (2), Andrei Kuzmenko (11)WSH 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 26% → 45% +20CGY 26% → 45%+20 pts
- P215:12Dylan Strome Goal (13) Backhand, assists: John Carlson (26), Jakob Chychrun (20)WSH 2 – 1 CGY · WSH 55% → 75% +21WSH 55% → 75%+21 pts
- P317:35Aliaksei Protas Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (9), Trevor van Riemsdyk (15)WSH 3 – 1 CGY · WSH 97% → >99% +3WSH 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML WSH -145 / CGY +125
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 55.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -133
- CGY +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 2.5 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +10 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +38 Elo | WSH 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%13th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3217–8 | Road vs home | 15–911th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–18 | 26–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–13 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 21–28 | 20–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–0 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.