Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints1
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals2
- Gabriel VilardiAssists2
- Gabriel VilardiPoints4
Scoring summary
- P37:08Mark Scheifele Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (25), Kyle Connor (36)2–5
- P34:27Nazem Kadri Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Bean (4)2–4
- P33:07Gabriel Vilardi Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (35), Nikolaj Ehlers (29)1–4
- P219:09Gabriel Vilardi Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (6), Mark Scheifele (28)1–3
- P215:08MacKenzie Weegar Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (9), Jonathan Huberdeau (17)1–2
- P210:17Mason Appleton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P15:28Kyle Connor Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (24), David Gustafsson (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:28Kyle Connor Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (24), David Gustafsson (2)CGY 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 64% → 77% +13WPG 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P210:17Mason Appleton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 79% → 90% +12WPG 79% → 90%+12 pts
- P215:08MacKenzie Weegar Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (9), Jonathan Huberdeau (17)CGY 1 – 2 WPG · CGY 8% → 21% +12CGY 8% → 21%+12 pts
- P219:09Gabriel Vilardi Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (6), Mark Scheifele (28)CGY 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 80% → 93% +13WPG 80% → 93%+13 pts
- P33:07Gabriel Vilardi Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (35), Nikolaj Ehlers (29)CGY 1 – 4 WPG · WPG 94% → 99% +5WPG 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 65%
- ML CGY +175 / WPG -210
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 67.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -186
- CGY +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.3 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −16 | −28 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.70 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +129 Elo | WPG 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 66.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.52nd of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 24th of 329–14 | Road vs home | 19–85th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–21 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 19–17 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 19–28 | 24–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–2 WPG in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.