Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Neal PionkGoals1
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists2
- Vladislav NamestnikovPoints2
Avalanche- Jonathan DrouinAssists2
- Jonathan DrouinPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:17Neal Pionk Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (13), Connor Hellebuyck (1)3–2
- P37:05Cale Makar Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (39), Jonathan Drouin (12)2–2
- P218:44Gabriel Vilardi Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Josh Morrissey (37), Vladislav Namestnikov (12)2–1
- P210:56Morgan Barron Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: David Gustafsson (1), Josh Morrissey (36)1–1
- P26:09Nathan MacKinnon Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (17), Jonathan Drouin (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:09Nathan MacKinnon Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Devon Toews (17), Jonathan Drouin (11)WPG 0 – 1 COL · COL 52% → 70% +18COL 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P210:56Morgan Barron Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: David Gustafsson (1), Josh Morrissey (36)WPG 1 – 1 COL · WPG 29% → 48% +20WPG 29% → 48%+20 pts
- P218:44Gabriel Vilardi Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Josh Morrissey (37), Vladislav Namestnikov (12)WPG 2 – 1 COL · WPG 49% → 72% +23WPG 49% → 72%+23 pts
- P37:05Cale Makar Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (39), Jonathan Drouin (12)WPG 2 – 2 COL · COL 22% → 51% +29COL 22% → 51%+29 pts
- OT0:17Neal Pionk Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (13), Connor Hellebuyck (1)WPG 3 – 2 COL · WPG 49% → 90% +41WPG 49% → 90%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 52%
- ML WPG +100 / COL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- COL: Elo 52.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -109
- WPG +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.7 – 2.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +2 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +14 Elo | COL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 89.5%26th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 6th of 3213–9 | Road vs home | 14–1114th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–23 | 18–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–17 | 14–24 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 23–25 | 25–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 6–5 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.
- Jan 11COL 0 @ WPG 3Picked COL 54%Miss
- Dec 31WPG 2 @ COL 5Picked COL 65%Hit
- Nov 7COL 0 @ WPG 1Picked WPG 56%Hit
- Apr 30COL 6 @ WPG 3PlayoffsPicked WPG 54%Miss
- Apr 28WPG 1 @ COL 5PlayoffsPicked COL 55%Hit
- Apr 26WPG 2 @ COL 6PlayoffsPicked COL 55%Hit
- Apr 23COL 5 @ WPG 2PlayoffsPicked WPG 55%Miss
- Apr 21COL 6 @ WPG 7PlayoffsPicked WPG 55%Hit