Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Mattias SamuelssonGoals1
- Mattias SamuelssonAssists1
- Mattias SamuelssonPoints2
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:52Mikael Backlund Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (16)2–5
- P317:15Yegor Sharangovich Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (16), Nazem Kadri (16)2–4
- P33:29Jakob Pelletier Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Pachal (4), Nazem Kadri (15)2–3
- P210:31Nazem Kadri Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (15), Jakob Pelletier (7)2–2
- P27:18Tage Thompson Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (5), JJ Peterka (24)2–1
- P22:50Mattias Samuelsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (3), Sam Lafferty (3)1–1
- P112:00Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Pachal (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:00Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Pachal (3)BUF 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 56% → 71% +15CGY 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P22:50Mattias Samuelsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (3), Sam Lafferty (3)BUF 1 – 1 CGY · BUF 28% → 45% +17BUF 28% → 45%+17 pts
- P27:18Tage Thompson Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (5), JJ Peterka (24)BUF 2 – 1 CGY · BUF 45% → 65% +19BUF 45% → 65%+19 pts
- P210:31Nazem Kadri Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (15), Jakob Pelletier (7)BUF 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 34% → 54% +20CGY 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P33:29Jakob Pelletier Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Pachal (4), Nazem Kadri (15)BUF 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 53% → 78% +25CGY 53% → 78%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 56%
- ML BUF +120 / CGY -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CGY: Elo 57.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CGY -128
- BUF +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.6 – 2.9 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +11 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +49 Elo | CGY 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 23rd of 329–13 | Road vs home | 14–911th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–24 | 24–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–20 | 17–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–1 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.