Buffalo Sabres at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Jiri KulichGoals1
- Jiri KulichAssists2
- Jiri KulichPoints3
Canucks- Phillip Di GiuseppeGoals1
- Brock BoeserAssists1
- Phillip Di GiuseppePoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:33JJ Peterka Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (28), Jiri Kulich (4)3–2
- P38:42Jiri Kulich Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: JJ Peterka (23), Rasmus Dahlin (27)2–2
- P210:29Elias Pettersson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (39), Brock Boeser (14)1–2
- P23:05Phillip Di Giuseppe Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Carson Soucy (6), J.T. Miller (24)1–1
- P117:34Tage Thompson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jiri Kulich (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:34Tage Thompson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jiri Kulich (3)BUF 1 – 0 VAN · BUF 40% → 57% +17BUF 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P23:05Phillip Di Giuseppe Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Carson Soucy (6), J.T. Miller (24)BUF 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 41% → 60% +18VAN 41% → 60%+18 pts
- P210:29Elias Pettersson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (39), Brock Boeser (14)BUF 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 59% → 77% +18VAN 59% → 77%+18 pts
- P38:42Jiri Kulich Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: JJ Peterka (23), Rasmus Dahlin (27)BUF 2 – 2 VAN · BUF 16% → 45% +28BUF 16% → 45%+28 pts
- P313:33JJ Peterka Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (28), Jiri Kulich (4)BUF 3 – 2 VAN · BUF 46% → 84% +38BUF 46% → 84%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 62%
- ML BUF +155 / VAN -185
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- VAN: Elo 59.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -166
- BUF +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.4 – 3.1 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +3 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +65 Elo | VAN 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.3% | Shot share | 48.2%25th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 88.9%30th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 24th of 328–13 | Road vs home | 8–1530th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–24 | 19–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–12 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 27–19 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 0–3 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.