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Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Oilers

29-14-3

2–3

at

Home

Canucks

20-15-10

EDM 62%VAN 38%

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Rogers Arena · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.

VAN favored EDM favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3VAN50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P213:38Leon Draisaitl Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (15), Connor McDavid (45)2–3
  • P24:01Leon Draisaitl Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
  • P118:00Quinn Hughes Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (23), Brock Boeser (13)0–3
  • P115:49Danton Heinen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (11), Phillip Di Giuseppe (4)0–2
  • P114:38Quinn Hughes Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (22)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P114:38Quinn Hughes Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (22)EDM 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 40% → 56% +17
  2. P115:49Danton Heinen Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (11), Phillip Di Giuseppe (4)EDM 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 57% → 72% +16
  3. P118:00Quinn Hughes Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (23), Brock Boeser (13)EDM 0 – 3 VAN · VAN 73% → 86% +12
  4. P24:01Leon Draisaitl Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 1 – 3 VAN · EDM 12% → 24% +12
  5. P213:38Leon Draisaitl Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (15), Connor McDavid (45)EDM 2 – 3 VAN · EDM 18% → 36% +18

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 62%

LeanMiss
EDM 62%VAN 38%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
EDM 62%
ML EDM -180 / VAN +150
Pre-line forecast
EDM 61%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 56%
Ratings vs. market
−5.6 pts
EDM: Elo 56.1%, market 61.6%
Fair odds
EDM -161
VAN +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.1 – 2.4 VAN
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMVANWhy
Team rating15741495Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+1+2EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +42 EloEDM 56.1%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 61.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 60.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 61.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatVAN
7th of 323.3Goals scored2.923rd of 32
6th of 322.7Goals allowed3.223rd of 32
7th of 32+0.6Margin−0.324th of 32
2nd of 3255.0%Shot share48.0%26th of 32
18th of 3290.0%Save percentage88.9%30th of 32
1st of 328–2Last 102–830th of 32
3rd of 3214–8Road vs home7–1531st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersCanucks
135014001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMVAN
Puck line18–2718–26
Last 105–53–7
Favorite14–267–16
Underdog4–111–10
Overs–unders20–2523–21
Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 5–7 VAN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.