Utah Hockey Club at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Nick SchmaltzGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Jets- Cole PerfettiGoals3
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists2
- Cole PerfettiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:15Cole Perfetti Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (28), Neal Pionk (25)2–5
- P312:16Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (15) Backhand, assists: none2–4
- P35:51Cole Perfetti Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (14), Dylan DeMelo (9)2–3
- P31:19Barrett Hayton Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (2), Clayton Keller (36)2–2
- P28:48David Gustafsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (8)1–2
- P21:13Nick Schmaltz Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Michael Kesselring (14), Clayton Keller (35)1–1
- P117:52Cole Perfetti Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (27), Gabriel Vilardi (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:52Cole Perfetti Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (27), Gabriel Vilardi (23)UTAH 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 65% → 80% +14WPG 65% → 80%+14 pts
- P21:13Nick Schmaltz Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Michael Kesselring (14), Clayton Keller (35)UTAH 1 – 1 WPG · UTAH 20% → 35% +15UTAH 20% → 35%+15 pts
- P28:48David Gustafsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (8)UTAH 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 63% → 80% +17WPG 63% → 80%+17 pts
- P31:19Barrett Hayton Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (2), Clayton Keller (36)UTAH 2 – 2 WPG · UTAH 18% → 40% +22UTAH 18% → 40%+22 pts
- P35:51Cole Perfetti Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (14), Dylan DeMelo (9)UTAH 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 59% → 84% +25WPG 59% → 84%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 68%
- ML UTAH +200 / WPG -240
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- WPG: Elo 69.9%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- WPG -212
- UTAH +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 2.2 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +10 | UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +146 Elo | WPG 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 72.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 72.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 50.1%14th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 9th of 3213–11 | Road vs home | 18–85th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–22 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 18–17 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–26 | 23–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–1 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.