Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Martin PospisilGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists2
- Martin PospisilPoints2
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Marco RossiAssists3
- Marco RossiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:33Mats Zuccarello Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (10), Marco Rossi (26)5–4
- P318:46Marcus Foligno Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (25), Matt Boldy (24)5–3
- P314:29Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (4) Wrap-around, assists: Yegor Sharangovich (8), MacKenzie Weegar (19)5–2
- P314:15Frederick Gaudreau Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (9), Marco Rossi (24)4–2
- P311:53Clark Bishop Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (4)4–1
- P219:52Rasmus Andersson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (11), Martin Pospisil (12)3–1
- P212:28Martin Pospisil Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (10), Yegor Sharangovich (7)2–1
- P19:34Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (23), Kirill Kaprizov (28)1–1
- P16:58Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (17), MacKenzie Weegar (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:58Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (17), MacKenzie Weegar (18)CGY 1 – 0 MIN · CGY 43% → 59% +15CGY 43% → 59%+15 pts
- P19:34Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (23), Kirill Kaprizov (28)CGY 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 41% → 57% +16MIN 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P212:28Martin Pospisil Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (10), Yegor Sharangovich (7)CGY 2 – 1 MIN · CGY 45% → 66% +21CGY 45% → 66%+21 pts
- P219:52Rasmus Andersson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (11), Martin Pospisil (12)CGY 3 – 1 MIN · CGY 70% → 88% +18CGY 70% → 88%+18 pts
- P311:53Clark Bishop Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Lomberg (4)CGY 4 – 1 MIN · CGY 97% → >99% +3CGY 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML CGY +125 / MIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -133
- CGY +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.5 – 3.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −10 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +40 Elo | MIN 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 48.4%24th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%4th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 26th of 328–14 | Road vs home | 11–1222nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–21 | 24–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 13–15 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 18–28 | 22–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–2 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.