Washington Capitals at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Pierre-Luc DuboisGoals1
- Connor McMichaelAssists1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints1
Canucks- Quinn HughesGoals2
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Quinn HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:31Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (21), Connor McMichael (19)1–2
- P21:24Quinn Hughes Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (16), Filip Hronek (11)0–2
- P112:23Quinn Hughes Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Nils Hoglander (7), Filip Hronek (10)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:23Quinn Hughes Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Nils Hoglander (7), Filip Hronek (10)WSH 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 48% → 64% +16VAN 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P21:24Quinn Hughes Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (16), Filip Hronek (11)WSH 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 66% → 81% +15VAN 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P312:31Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (21), Connor McMichael (19)WSH 1 – 2 VAN · WSH 2% → 16% +13WSH 2% → 16%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 52%
- ML WSH -120 / VAN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- VAN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 2.7 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −6 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +25 Elo | WSH 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.225th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 48.3%25th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 88.7%31st of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 1st of 3217–7 | Road vs home | 8–1631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–17 | 19–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–12 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 18–5 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–27 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–1 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.