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Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Canucks

20-17-10

2–6

at

Home

Oilers

30-15-3

VAN 39%EDM 61%

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Rogers Place · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored VAN favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%VAN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canucks
Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P310:21Kasperi Kapanen Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ty Emberson (8)2–6
  • P215:06Filip Hronek Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (40), Brock Boeser (15)2–5
  • P212:27Brock Boeser Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (25), Pius Suter (9)1–5
  • P212:02Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (39), Evan Bouchard (28)0–5
  • P21:59Zach Hyman Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Noah Philp (2)0–4
  • P114:41Adam Henrique Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (13), Corey Perry (8)0–3
  • P114:21Leon Draisaitl Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (12), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (16)0–2
  • P15:52Zach Hyman Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (38), Viktor Arvidsson (10)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P15:52Zach Hyman Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (38), Viktor Arvidsson (10)VAN 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 61% → 75% +14
  2. P114:21Leon Draisaitl Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (12), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (16)VAN 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 75% → 86% +11
  3. P114:41Adam Henrique Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Mattias Ekholm (13), Corey Perry (8)VAN 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 86% → 93% +7
  4. P21:59Zach Hyman Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Noah Philp (2)VAN 0 – 4 EDM · EDM 95% → 98% +3
  5. P215:06Filip Hronek Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (40), Brock Boeser (15)VAN 2 – 5 EDM · VAN <1% → 3% +2

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 61%

LeanHit
VAN 39%EDM 61%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
EDM 61%
ML VAN +150 / EDM -175
Pre-line forecast
EDM 69%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 65%
Ratings vs. market
+3.4 pts
EDM: Elo 64.8%, market 61.4%
Fair odds
EDM -159
VAN +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VAN 2.4 – 3.1 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVANEDMWhy
Team rating14951568Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2+1VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +106 EloEDM 64.8%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 70.3%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 69.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 61.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
VANStatEDM
23rd of 322.8Goals scored3.38th of 32
22nd of 323.2Goals allowed2.76th of 32
23rd of 32−0.3Margin+0.58th of 32
23rd of 3248.5%Shot share54.9%2nd of 32
30th of 3288.9%Save percentage89.9%20th of 32
27th of 323–7Last 107–31st of 32
9th of 3212–10Road vs home15–910th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CanucksOilers
135014001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVANEDM
Puck line19–2718–29
Last 104–64–6
Favorite7–1714–28
Underdog12–104–1
Overs–unders23–2320–27
Overs–unders, last 104–64–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VAN 8–5 EDM in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.