Montreal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Kirby DachGoals1
- Kirby DachAssists1
- Kirby DachPoints2
Red Wings- Andrew CoppGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Moritz SeiderPoints2
Scoring summary
- P211:06Kaiden Guhle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (6), Kirby Dach (9)2–4
- P27:50Dylan Larkin Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (14), Moritz Seider (26)1–4
- P25:29Kirby Dach Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Christian Dvorak (11), Brendan Gallagher (9)1–3
- P24:25Andrew Copp Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (15)0–3
- P119:56Alex DeBrincat Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (33), Moritz Seider (25)0–2
- P113:00Jonatan Berggren Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (24)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:00Jonatan Berggren Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (24)MTL 0 – 1 DET · DET 54% → 69% +16DET 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P119:56Alex DeBrincat Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (33), Moritz Seider (25)MTL 0 – 2 DET · DET 70% → 84% +13DET 70% → 84%+13 pts
- P24:25Andrew Copp Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (15)MTL 0 – 3 DET · DET 85% → 93% +9DET 85% → 93%+9 pts
- P25:29Kirby Dach Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Christian Dvorak (11), Brendan Gallagher (9)MTL 1 – 3 DET · MTL 6% → 15% +8MTL 6% → 15%+8 pts
- P27:50Dylan Larkin Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (14), Moritz Seider (26)MTL 1 – 4 DET · DET 86% → 94% +8DET 86% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML MTL +110 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- DET: Elo 57.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- MTL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +3 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +53 Elo | DET 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.225th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 46.8%29th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 14th of 3211–12 | Road vs home | 12–1322nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–18 | 28–19 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 28–16 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 26–21 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 3–3 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.