New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Alexis LafrenierePoints1
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:20Patrik Laine Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (9), Jake Evans (14)4–5
- P312:52Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (20), Lane Hutson (35)4–4
- P216:20Chris Kreider Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (34), Ryan Lindgren (9)4–3
- P215:05Nick Suzuki Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: none3–3
- P210:24Mika Zibanejad Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (33), Artemi Panarin (29)3–2
- P25:07Christian Dvorak Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (8), Alex Newhook (4)2–2
- P114:38Will Cuylle Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P113:52Brendan Gallagher Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Christian Dvorak (10), Josh Anderson (10)1–1
- P111:17Alexis Lafrenière Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:24Mika Zibanejad Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (33), Artemi Panarin (29)NYR 3 – 2 MTL · NYR 52% → 71% +20NYR 52% → 71%+20 pts
- P215:05Nick Suzuki Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYR 3 – 3 MTL · MTL 27% → 49% +21MTL 27% → 49%+21 pts
- P216:20Chris Kreider Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (34), Ryan Lindgren (9)NYR 4 – 3 MTL · NYR 51% → 73% +22NYR 51% → 73%+22 pts
- P312:52Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (20), Lane Hutson (35)NYR 4 – 4 MTL · MTL 14% → 49% +35MTL 14% → 49%+35 pts
- OT3:20Patrik Laine Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (9), Jake Evans (14)NYR 4 – 5 MTL · MTL 50% → 99% +49MTL 50% → 99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 52%
- ML NYR -120 / MTL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- NYR: Elo 46.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -109
- MTL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.3 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MTL and NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +33 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.84 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +26 Elo | MTL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.9% | Shot share | 47.2%28th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.1%28th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 12th of 3212–12 | Road vs home | 11–1116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–28 | 27–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–20 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 26–16 |
| Overs–unders | 20–25 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 4–1 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.