Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors NYR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets
RangersScoring summary
- SO0:00Vincent Trocheck Goal Snap Shot0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 64%
- ML CBJ +170 / NYR -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- NYR: Elo 61.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -180
- CBJ +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.7 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −3 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +79 Elo | NYR 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 68.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.217th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 48.9%20th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 90.6%10th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 29th of 326–15 | Road vs home | 9–1124th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–19 | 17–27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 22–14 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 29–16 | 20–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–2 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.