Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Nick SeelerAssists1
- Owen TippettPoints1
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Kirill Marchenko Goal Poke0–2
- SO0:00Kent Johnson Goal Snap Shot0–2
- P315:23Zach Werenski Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (30), Adam Fantilli (12)2–2
- P38:13Owen Tippett Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (13)2–1
- P110:27Zach Werenski Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P13:44Bobby Brink Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (10), Jamie Drysdale (9)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:44Bobby Brink Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Nick Seeler (10), Jamie Drysdale (9)PHI 1 – 0 CBJ · PHI 52% → 67% +15PHI 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P110:27Zach Werenski Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: nonePHI 1 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 33% → 48% +15CBJ 33% → 48%+15 pts
- P38:13Owen Tippett Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (13)PHI 2 – 1 CBJ · PHI 51% → 80% +29PHI 51% → 80%+29 pts
- P315:23Zach Werenski Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (30), Adam Fantilli (12)PHI 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 9% → 49% +40CBJ 9% → 49%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML PHI -120 / CBJ +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 38.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- CBJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −8 | PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +78 Elo | CBJ 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 50.7%11th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 88.4%31st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 329–13 | Road vs home | 14–89th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–21 | 24–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 17–14 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 24–20 | 29–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–2 CBJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.