San Jose Sharks at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Blue Jackets- James van RiemsdykGoals2
- Kent JohnsonAssists1
- James van RiemsdykPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:59James van Riemsdyk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (31)1–4
- P37:32Tyler Toffoli Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (19)1–3
- P26:37James van Riemsdyk Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Damon Severson (13), Kent Johnson (14)0–3
- P116:17Kent Johnson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (7)0–2
- P112:11Adam Fantilli Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (36)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:11Adam Fantilli Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (36)SJ 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 60% → 75% +15CBJ 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P116:17Kent Johnson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (7)SJ 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 75% → 86% +11CBJ 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P26:37James van Riemsdyk Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Damon Severson (13), Kent Johnson (14)SJ 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 88% → 95% +7CBJ 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P37:32Tyler Toffoli Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (19)SJ 1 – 3 CBJ · SJ <1% → 4% +4SJ <1% → 4%+4 pts
- P317:59James van Riemsdyk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (31)SJ 1 – 4 CBJ · CBJ >99% → >99% +0CBJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 61%
- ML SJ +150 / CBJ -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- CBJ: Elo 67.1%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -159
- SJ +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.6 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +4 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +124 Elo | CBJ 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.529th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−0.9 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.7% | Shot share | 50.8%11th of 32 |
| 19th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.4%31st of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 30th of 326–17 | Road vs home | 15–87th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–17 | 25–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 29–17 | 22–14 |
| Overs–unders | 20–26 | 29–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–2 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.