Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Oliver Ekman-LarssonGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists2
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonPoints3
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Kaiden GuhleAssists1
- Josh AndersonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:26David Kampf Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (12)7–3
- P314:45Steven Lorentz Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (15), Mitch Marner (50)6–3
- P37:58Auston Matthews Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (49), Morgan Rielly (16)5–3
- P34:31Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (14)4–3
- P30:24William Nylander Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Bobby McMann (7)3–3
- P218:46Nicholas Robertson Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (14), Pontus Holmberg (5)2–3
- P29:32Bobby McMann Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P118:30Josh Anderson Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Joel Armia (13), Alexandre Carrier (14)0–3
- P118:21Patrik Laine Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (34), Nick Suzuki (33)0–2
- P15:08Kirby Dach Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (8), Patrik Laine (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:08Kirby Dach Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (8), Patrik Laine (3)TOR 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 43% → 58% +15MTL 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P118:21Patrik Laine Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (34), Nick Suzuki (33)TOR 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 61% → 77% +15MTL 61% → 77%+15 pts
- P218:46Nicholas Robertson Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (14), Pontus Holmberg (5)TOR 2 – 3 MTL · TOR 13% → 31% +17TOR 13% → 31%+17 pts
- P30:24William Nylander Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Bobby McMann (7)TOR 3 – 3 MTL · TOR 30% → 54% +24TOR 30% → 54%+24 pts
- P34:31Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (14)TOR 4 – 3 MTL · TOR 54% → 79% +25TOR 54% → 79%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML TOR -145 / MTL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -133
- MTL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 2.5 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −6 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +15 Elo | TOR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 47.1%28th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 9th of 3210–9 | Road vs home | 11–1015th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–23 | 27–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 15–19 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–1 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.