New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- Johnathan KovacevicAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints2
Maple Leafs- Jake McCabeAssists2
- Jake McCabePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:10William Nylander Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (48), Jake McCabe (12)3–4
- P315:47Auston Matthews Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (47), Jake McCabe (11)3–3
- P39:44Nico Hischier Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (17), Jack Hughes (37)3–2
- P37:43Auston Matthews Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (21), Bobby McMann (6)2–2
- P28:14Nico Hischier Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (37), Jack Hughes (36)2–1
- P26:14William Nylander Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (13), Chris Tanev (13)1–1
- P12:21Jack Hughes Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:14Nico Hischier Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (37), Jack Hughes (36)NJ 2 – 1 TOR · NJ 53% → 72% +19NJ 53% → 72%+19 pts
- P37:43Auston Matthews Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (21), Bobby McMann (6)NJ 2 – 2 TOR · TOR 20% → 48% +28TOR 20% → 48%+28 pts
- P39:44Nico Hischier Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (17), Jack Hughes (37)NJ 3 – 2 TOR · NJ 52% → 82% +31NJ 52% → 82%+31 pts
- P315:47Auston Matthews Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (47), Jake McCabe (11)NJ 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 8% → 49% +41TOR 8% → 49%+41 pts
- OT1:10William Nylander Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (48), Jake McCabe (12)NJ 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 49% → 92% +43TOR 49% → 92%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 54%
- ML NJ -130 / TOR +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- NJ: Elo 45.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 2.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −4 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +30 Elo | TOR 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.812th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.8% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 9th of 3212–10 | Road vs home | 17–96th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–26 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–24 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–32 | 21–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–3 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.