Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Emil LillebergAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Canadiens- Jake EvansGoals1
- Alexandre CarrierAssists1
- Jake EvansPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:45Jake Evans Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (14), Alexandre Carrier (15)2–3
- P27:21Alex Newhook Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (5)2–2
- P25:32Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (4), Lane Hutson (36)2–1
- P22:45Jake Guentzel Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Michael Eyssimont (3)2–0
- P114:20Nikita Kucherov Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (20), Emil Lilleberg (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:20Nikita Kucherov Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (20), Emil Lilleberg (11)TB 1 – 0 MTL · TB 55% → 70% +16TB 55% → 70%+16 pts
- P22:45Jake Guentzel Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Michael Eyssimont (3)TB 2 – 0 MTL · TB 71% → 85% +13TB 71% → 85%+13 pts
- P25:32Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (4), Lane Hutson (36)TB 2 – 1 MTL · MTL 14% → 28% +14MTL 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P27:21Alex Newhook Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (5)TB 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 28% → 46% +18MTL 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P317:45Jake Evans Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (14), Alexandre Carrier (15)TB 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 49% → 97% +48MTL 49% → 97%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML TB -135 / MTL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- TB: Elo 52.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- MTL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.4 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −12 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +18 Elo | TB 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.321st of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 47.4%28th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3210–13 | Road vs home | 12–1115th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–21 | 28–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–14 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders | 20–25 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–1 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.