Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals2
- Darren RaddyshAssists1
- Nick PaulPoints2
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals2
- Matthew KniesAssists1
- Matthew KniesPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:55Mitch Marner Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P312:05Nick Paul Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Hagel (30), Victor Hedman (31)3–4
- P310:09Matthew Knies Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (52), Bobby McMann (8)2–4
- P38:07Darren Raddysh Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (30), Nikita Kucherov (48)2–3
- P219:37Matthew Knies Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (51), Auston Matthews (18)1–3
- P216:07Nick Paul Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (17), Brayden Point (23)1–2
- P213:45William Nylander Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (17), Steven Lorentz (6)0–2
- P14:06Auston Matthews Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (13), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:06Auston Matthews Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (13), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (16)TB 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 55% → 69% +14TOR 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P213:45William Nylander Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (17), Steven Lorentz (6)TB 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 74% → 88% +14TOR 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P216:07Nick Paul Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (17), Brayden Point (23)TB 1 – 2 TOR · TB 11% → 25% +15TB 11% → 25%+15 pts
- P219:37Matthew Knies Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (51), Auston Matthews (18)TB 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 76% → 91% +15TOR 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P38:07Darren Raddysh Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (30), Nikita Kucherov (48)TB 2 – 3 TOR · TB 4% → 19% +15TB 4% → 19%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML TB +115 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −3 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +34 Elo | TOR 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.111th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 49.6%18th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 91.1%5th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3210–12 | Road vs home | 18–97th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–20 | 24–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–14 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 19–25 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–4 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.