Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P215:06Darren Raddysh Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (47), Jake Guentzel (23)1–5
- P214:12Lucas Raymond Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (19), Moritz Seider (24)1–4
- P23:58Mitchell Chaffee Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Atkinson (3)0–4
- P21:50Nikita Kucherov Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (29), Jake Guentzel (22)0–3
- P20:16Jake Guentzel Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (46), Darren Raddysh (16)0–2
- P12:02Brayden Point Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Emil Lilleberg (10), Nick Perbix (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:02Brayden Point Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Emil Lilleberg (10), Nick Perbix (8)DET 0 – 1 TB · TB 64% → 77% +13TB 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P20:16Jake Guentzel Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (46), Darren Raddysh (16)DET 0 – 2 TB · TB 77% → 88% +11TB 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P21:50Nikita Kucherov Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (29), Jake Guentzel (22)DET 0 – 3 TB · TB 89% → 95% +7TB 89% → 95%+7 pts
- P23:58Mitchell Chaffee Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Atkinson (3)DET 0 – 4 TB · TB 96% → 98% +3TB 96% → 98%+3 pts
- P214:12Lucas Raymond Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (19), Moritz Seider (24)DET 1 – 4 TB · DET <1% → 3% +2DET <1% → 3%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 64%
- ML DET +170 / TB -200
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- TB: Elo 61.4%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -180
- DET +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +5 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +80 Elo | TB 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 67.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.83rd of 32 |
| 30th of 3245.9% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 91.0%6th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 15th of 329–10 | Road vs home | 14–76th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–17 | 23–20 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 14–14 |
| Underdog | 23–9 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 24–20 | 19–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–0 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.