Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Ben ChiarotGoals1
- Ben ChiarotPoints1
Flyers- Rasmus RistolainenGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Rasmus RistolainenPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:34Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (2) Poke, assists: Owen Tippett (16), Joel Farabee (11)1–2
- P30:30Ben Chiarot Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (32), Dylan Larkin (23)1–1
- P25:21Joel Farabee Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Sean Couturier (16), Matvei Michkov (20)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:21Joel Farabee Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Sean Couturier (16), Matvei Michkov (20)DET 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 55% → 73% +18PHI 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P30:30Ben Chiarot Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (32), Dylan Larkin (23)DET 1 – 1 PHI · DET 23% → 46% +23DET 23% → 46%+23 pts
- OT4:34Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (2) Poke, assists: Owen Tippett (16), Joel Farabee (11)DET 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 51% → >99% +49PHI 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML DET +120 / PHI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 3.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +9 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +28 Elo | PHI 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.112th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.7% | Shot share | 51.0%11th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.1%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 20th of 329–12 | Road vs home | 10–1225th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–19 | 25–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 24–22 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.