Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Sean CouturierGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:48Noah Cates Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (33)5–3
- P317:16
Anders Lee Goal (20) Deflected, assists: Bo Horvat (18), Kyle Palmieri (16)4–3 - P35:16Cam York Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (10), Sean Couturier (14)4–2
- P30:30Mathew Barzal Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (17)3–2
- P213:41Morgan Frost Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Owen Tippett (15), Travis Konecny (32)3–1
- P29:29Garnet Hathaway Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (31), Travis Sanheim (18)2–1
- P25:15Sean Couturier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (9), Matvei Michkov (19)1–1
- P19:21Bo Horvat Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:15Sean Couturier Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (9), Matvei Michkov (19)PHI 1 – 1 NYI · PHI 27% → 45% +18PHI 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P29:29Garnet Hathaway Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (31), Travis Sanheim (18)PHI 2 – 1 NYI · PHI 46% → 66% +20PHI 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P213:41Morgan Frost Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Owen Tippett (15), Travis Konecny (32)PHI 3 – 1 NYI · PHI 67% → 84% +17PHI 67% → 84%+17 pts
- P30:30Mathew Barzal Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (17)PHI 3 – 2 NYI · NYI 12% → 29% +17NYI 12% → 29%+17 pts
- P35:16Cam York Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (10), Sean Couturier (14)PHI 4 – 2 NYI · PHI 75% → 92% +17PHI 75% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 56%
- ML PHI +120 / NYI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- NYI: Elo 54.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -128
- PHI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.6 – 2.9 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −2 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +31 Elo | NYI 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 50.2%13th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 24th of 329–14 | Road vs home | 7–1229th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–22 | 18–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 3–19 |
| Underdog | 17–14 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 24–21 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.