Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals1
- Jackson LaCombeAssists1
- Frank VatranoPoints1
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals2
- Matt CoronatoAssists1
- Matt CoronatoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:37Matt Coronato Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Hanley (3)1–4
- P316:10Matt Coronato Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (17)1–3
- P219:16Blake Coleman Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Matt Coronato (14)1–2
- P20:15Adam Klapka Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Martin Pospisil (13), Jake Bean (5)1–1
- P111:54Frank Vatrano Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:54Frank Vatrano Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (15)ANA 1 – 0 CGY · ANA 39% → 55% +16ANA 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P20:15Adam Klapka Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Martin Pospisil (13), Jake Bean (5)ANA 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 42% → 60% +18CGY 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P219:16Blake Coleman Goal (12) Deflected, assists: Matt Coronato (14)ANA 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 57% → 79% +22CGY 57% → 79%+22 pts
- P316:10Matt Coronato Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (17)ANA 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 94% → >99% +6CGY 94% → >99%+6 pts
- P317:37Matt Coronato Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Hanley (3)ANA 1 – 4 CGY · CGY >99% → >99% +0CGY >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 62%
- ML ANA +155 / CGY -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CGY: Elo 62.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -166
- ANA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.4 – 3.1 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +9 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +87 Elo | CGY 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 63.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%13th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 21st of 3210–15 | Road vs home | 15–1012th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–17 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 30–16 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 18–32 | 20–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–3 CGY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.