Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Adam WilsbyAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints1
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals2
- Brett LeasonAssists2
- Mason McTavishPoints2
Scoring summary
- P214:20Mason McTavish Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (23), Jackson LaCombe (13)2–5
- P211:48Trevor Zegras Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Helleson (5), Brian Dumoulin (12)2–4
- P210:46Jansen Harkins Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (11), Brett Leason (9)2–3
- P25:07Ryan O'Reilly Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Filip Forsberg (31), Adam Wilsby (4)2–2
- P119:55Mason McTavish Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (11), Trevor Zegras (8)1–2
- P114:50Gustav Nyquist Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Filip Forsberg (30)1–1
- P14:15Pavel Mintyukov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Leason (8), Jansen Harkins (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:50Gustav Nyquist Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Filip Forsberg (30)NSH 1 – 1 ANA · NSH 45% → 62% +17NSH 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P119:55Mason McTavish Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (11), Trevor Zegras (8)NSH 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 39% → 56% +18ANA 39% → 56%+18 pts
- P25:07Ryan O'Reilly Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Filip Forsberg (31), Adam Wilsby (4)NSH 2 – 2 ANA · NSH 42% → 61% +19NSH 42% → 61%+19 pts
- P210:46Jansen Harkins Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (11), Brett Leason (9)NSH 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 40% → 61% +21ANA 40% → 61%+21 pts
- P211:48Trevor Zegras Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Drew Helleson (5), Brian Dumoulin (12)NSH 2 – 4 ANA · ANA 62% → 80% +18ANA 62% → 80%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 64%
- ML NSH -195 / ANA +165
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- NSH: Elo 54.7%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- NSH -175
- ANA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.6 – 2.9 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −4 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +33 Elo | NSH 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.122nd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 46.6%30th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.7%9th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 30th of 326–18 | Road vs home | 10–1427th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–27 | 31–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 28–16 |
| Overs–unders | 19–28 | 16–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–2 ANA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.