Nashville Predators at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Fedor SvechkovGoals1
- Brady SkjeiAssists3
- Brady SkjeiPoints3
Sharks- Mario FerraroGoals1
- Nikolai KovalenkoAssists2
- Mario FerraroPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:16Fedor Svechkov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (13), Zachary L'Heureux (8)6–5
- P215:21Macklin Celebrini Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (29), William Eklund (27)5–5
- P213:54Fabian Zetterlund Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Will Smith (12), Mikael Granlund (28)5–4
- P212:39Henry Thrun Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (15), Nikolai Kovalenko (11)5–3
- P27:07Steven Stamkos Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (23), Roman Josi (26)5–2
- P21:38Filip Forsberg Goal (18) Wrap-around, assists: Colton Sissons (7), Brady Skjei (12)4–2
- P116:34Mario Ferraro Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (27), Timothy Liljegren (5)3–2
- P18:12Walker Duehr Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (10), Mario Ferraro (5)3–1
- P16:53Filip Forsberg Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Justin Barron (1)3–0
- P14:52Tommy Novak Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary L'Heureux (7), Fedor Svechkov (2)2–0
- P13:58Gustav Nyquist Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (8), Brady Skjei (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:58Gustav Nyquist Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (8), Brady Skjei (11)NSH 1 – 0 SJ · NSH 66% → 79% +12NSH 66% → 79%+12 pts
- P21:38Filip Forsberg Goal (18) Wrap-around, assists: Colton Sissons (7), Brady Skjei (12)NSH 4 – 2 SJ · NSH 79% → 90% +11NSH 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P213:54Fabian Zetterlund Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Will Smith (12), Mikael Granlund (28)NSH 5 – 4 SJ · SJ 8% → 20% +12SJ 8% → 20%+12 pts
- P215:21Macklin Celebrini Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (29), William Eklund (27)NSH 5 – 5 SJ · SJ 20% → 39% +19SJ 20% → 39%+19 pts
- P38:16Fedor Svechkov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (13), Zachary L'Heureux (8)NSH 6 – 5 SJ · NSH 58% → 85% +27NSH 58% → 85%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 67%
- ML NSH -225 / SJ +190
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- NSH: Elo 59.5%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- NSH -201
- SJ +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.7 – 2.8 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +8 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +67 Elo | NSH 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 61.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 45.2%31st of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%21st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 31st of 325–18 | Road vs home | 8–1530th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–26 | 30–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–18 | — |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 30–20 |
| Overs–unders | 18–28 | 22–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 4–0 SJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.