San Jose Sharks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Will SmithGoals1
- Will SmithAssists1
- Will SmithPoints2
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Matthew PoitrasAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:35Elias Lindholm Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (6), Andrew Peeke (10)3–6
- P318:45Brad Marchand Goal (17) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (31), Brandon Carlo (5)3–5
- P314:11Charlie Coyle Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (6), Mason Lohrei (20)3–4
- P38:22Charlie Coyle Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (5), Brad Marchand (20)3–3
- P215:18Fabian Zetterlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (10)3–2
- P28:52Will Smith Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (26)2–2
- P27:02David Pastrnak Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (16), Elias Lindholm (16)1–2
- P113:16Barclay Goodrow Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (6), Ty Dellandrea (4)1–1
- P19:21Vinni Lettieri Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Oesterle (5), Oliver Wahlstrom (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:02David Pastrnak Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (16), Elias Lindholm (16)SJ 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 62% → 79% +17BOS 62% → 79%+17 pts
- P28:52Will Smith Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (26)SJ 2 – 2 BOS · SJ 21% → 39% +17SJ 21% → 39%+17 pts
- P215:18Fabian Zetterlund Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (10)SJ 3 – 2 BOS · SJ 40% → 62% +22SJ 40% → 62%+22 pts
- P38:22Charlie Coyle Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (5), Brad Marchand (20)SJ 3 – 3 BOS · BOS 26% → 57% +31BOS 26% → 57%+31 pts
- P314:11Charlie Coyle Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (6), Mason Lohrei (20)SJ 3 – 4 BOS · BOS 55% → 90% +35BOS 55% → 90%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 66%
- ML SJ +180 / BOS -215
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 66.6%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -191
- SJ +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.3 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1389 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +18 | −10 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +120 Elo | BOS 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 70.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.726th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.3% | Shot share | 49.2%19th of 32 |
| 19th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.6%24th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 30th of 326–19 | Road vs home | 13–1014th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–19 | 18–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 8–19 |
| Underdog | 29–19 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 20–28 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.