San Jose Sharks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Barclay GoodrowGoals1
- Jan RuttaAssists1
- Barclay GoodrowPoints1
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists1
- Mathew BarzalPoints2
Scoring summary
- P31:03Ryan Pulock Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (4), Brock Nelson (15)1–4
- P219:33Noah Dobson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (10), Bo Horvat (19)1–3
- P210:42Brock Nelson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (17), Adam Pelech (8)1–2
- P210:02Barclay Goodrow Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jan Rutta (6)1–1
- P28:47Mathew Barzal Goal (6) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:47Mathew Barzal Goal (6) Backhand, assists: noneSJ 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 63% → 80% +17NYI 63% → 80%+17 pts
- P210:02Barclay Goodrow Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jan Rutta (6)SJ 1 – 1 NYI · SJ 20% → 37% +17SJ 20% → 37%+17 pts
- P210:42Brock Nelson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (17), Adam Pelech (8)SJ 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 62% → 80% +17NYI 62% → 80%+17 pts
- P219:33Noah Dobson Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (10), Bo Horvat (19)SJ 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 81% → 94% +12NYI 81% → 94%+12 pts
- P31:03Ryan Pulock Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (4), Brock Nelson (15)SJ 1 – 4 NYI · NYI 94% → 99% +5NYI 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 68%
- ML SJ +195 / NYI -240
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- NYI: Elo 68.0%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- NYI -208
- SJ +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.2 – 3.3 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +16 | SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NYI: Marcus Hogberg: team allows 0.41 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +131 Elo | NYI 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 69.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.5% | Shot share | 50.3%12th of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 30th of 326–18 | Road vs home | 7–1329th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–18 | 18–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 3–20 |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 15–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–27 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–1 NYI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.